2019 global PCB industry market status and development trend analysis
1. The global PCB industry is slowly growing. The industry continues to shift to mainland China.
According to Prismark data, global PCB production value in 2017 was approximately US$58.84 billion, an increase of approximately 8.54% year-on-year; Prismark expects global PCB production value to be approximately US$61.10 billion in 2018, representing an increase of approximately 3.84% year-on-year; global PCB production is expected to reach 2022 by 2022. About $68.81 billion.
In 2017, China's PCB production value was approximately US$29.76 billion, an increase of approximately 9.64% year-on-year. China's PCB production value accounted for more than 50% of global PCB production value. It is estimated that the output value of China's PCB in 2018 is about 31.25 billion US dollars, an increase of about 5.01% year-on-year. The compound growth rate of China's PCB output value is about 3.7% in 2017-2022. It is estimated that China's PCB output value will reach about 35.71 billion US dollars by 2022.
2, FPC, HDI, multi-layer board opportunities are attacking
There are many PCB classifications. At present, the use of PCBs and PPCs is the most used. According to Prismark, with the development and changes of application scenarios in the future, the 5G era, smartphone upgrades, the rise of the Internet of Things, and the complexity of automotive electronics A series of downstream industries will be upgraded, and FPC, HDI and multi-layer boards will be the main beneficiaries. The growth rate is obvious. In 2016-2021, the PCB products will behave in HGR, soft board and multi-layer boards. Eye-catching, 2.8%, 3.0%, 2.4%.
3. Communications, consumer electronics, and automotive electronics are the main drivers of future growth.
Looking at the PCB from the downstream demand side, the development of the PCB industry is inseparable from the development of downstream application areas. In recent years, it has mainly benefited from the new demand in the application fields of consumer electronics, communications, automotive electronics, and industrial control medical. At present, in the context of the upcoming 5G, the 5G base station construction plan is clear, the consumer electronics industry is hot on the spot, and the innovations in the fields of automotive electronics, industrial control medical, and computer are continuing. The downstream applications of PCB will continue to benefit from the 5G dividend.
In 2018, the PCB downstream application market was mainly concentrated in the fields of computers (25.6%), communications (31.2%), and consumer electronics (13.9%), automobiles (9.2%), industrial control medical (6.5%), military and aerospace (4.2%), The package carrier board (9.4%) is less than 10%. Prismark predicts that the contribution of downstream applications to PCB CAGR from 2018 to 2022 will focus on communications (3.5%), consumer electronics (4.2%), and automotive electronics (3.9%).
4, 5G environment, high-frequency high-speed PCB sheet will benefit significantly
At present, the communication field is the largest downstream of PCB. According to Prismark data, in 2017, the global PCB electronics output value reached 17.8 billion US dollars, accounting for 30.3% of the global PCB industry's total output value, and the proportion has continued to increase over the years. The 2017 PCB downstream communications electronics market has an output value of $567 billion and is expected to maintain a compound growth rate of 2.9% over the next five years. PCB requirements for communication equipment are mainly high-multilayer boards (8-16 boards account for approximately 35.18%) and have a 8.95% package substrate requirement.
The communication network construction itself requires the application of PCB board mainly in the four major areas of wireless network, transmission network, data communication and fixed network broadband. At the beginning of 5G construction, the increase in demand for PCBs is directly reflected in the wireless network and transmission network, and the demand for PCB backplanes, high-frequency boards, and high-speed multilayer boards is large. In the middle and late stages of 5G construction, with the accelerated penetration of 5G high-bandwidth service applications, such as mobile HD video, car networking, AR/VR and other business applications, the data processing and exchange capabilities of the data center will also have a greater impact. It is expected that after 2020, domestic data centers will be upgraded from the current 10G and 40G to 100G and 400G ultra-large data centers. At that time, the demand for high-speed multi-layer boards in the data communication field will grow rapidly.
5, 5G construction drives the price and price of PCB
5G network has the characteristics of high speed, large capacity and low delay. In addition to great convenience for daily life, 5G continues to penetrate the Internet of Things and many industries, in vertical industries such as communication, autonomous driving, industrial control medical, and smart home. Diversify business needs and achieve a true “Internet of Everything”. Compared with 4G, the user experience speed (0.1~1Gbps) under 5G coverage, mobility (500+Km/h), peak rate (Tensof Gbps), end-to-end delay (1 millisecond) is 10 times that of 4G The traffic density (tens of Tbps/Km2) is 100 times that of 4G, and the comprehensive performance will far exceed the 4G era.
5G has many high-performance indicators, and needs to meet the requirements of differentiated performance indicators in diverse application scenarios. The performance required by different application scenarios is different. From the perspective of mobile Internet and Internet of Things, the technical scenarios will mainly include continuous wide-area coverage, hot-spot high-capacity, low-power large connections, low latency and high reliability.
The arrival of 5G will have a huge impact on the communication PCB industry. In summary, on the one hand, the growth of “quantity”, on the other hand, the increase in technical difficulty leads to the rise of “price”.
The number of 5G macro base stations is expected to exceed 5 million, and the number of micro base stations is expected to exceed 10 million. In the 5G era, the mode of “macro station + small station” networking will be adopted. The 5G base station using millimeter wave has a short transmission distance and the coverage capability is greatly reduced. To reduce costs, the corresponding solution is to use a low-power "micro base station." The cost of the micro base station is low and the radiated power is more uniform, which will become the mainstream technology in the future. According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the total number of 4G base stations in China in December 2017 was 3.28 million. So far, the 4G wide coverage period has basically ended, and will continue to grow slowly in the next few years, and is expected to eventually reach around 4 million. In order to achieve 4G coverage, the total number of 5G macro base stations will reach 1.2-1.5 times that of 4G base stations, and it is expected to exceed 5 million. The number of 5G micro base stations is conservatively estimated to be more than twice that of macro base stations.
The 5G base station structure has undergone major changes. In the era of 5G communication, high-frequency and high-speed applications such as 5G high-frequency communication mobile phones, millimeter-wave technology, and 802.11ad high-speed WIFI have gradually become new demands in the market. Under this premise, for the lower-level electronic components such as PCB and FPC. The upgrade requirements have also changed, and the evolution of new processes and new materials has become a trend in the electronics industry in the future.
The 5G base station structure is upgraded from the BBU+RRU in the 4G era to the DU+CU+AAU three-level structure. 4G base station structure: BBU (Base Band Unit) + RRU (Remote Radio Unit) + antenna feeder system. In the 4G era, the standard macro base station is composed of a baseband processing unit BBU, a radio frequency processing unit RRU, and an antenna. The RRU is connected to the antenna through a feeder. 5G base station structure: DU+CU+AAU. With the increase of 5G network capacity and the application of Massive MIMO, the 5G base station combines the RRU and the antenna feeder system into an AAU (Active Antenna Unit). Due to the large number of 5G antennas, the performance of the feeder can reduce the loss caused by the feeder. At the same time, it can also reduce costs to a certain extent. The 5G base station splits the BBU into a Distributed Unit (DU) and a CU (Centralized Unit).
AAU's PCB area has increased. The number of AAU antennas using Massive MIMO technology is greatly increased, and the number of antennas may reach 64, 128 or even higher. The antenna of the 5G base station will be integrated on the PCB, and the corresponding area of the PCB will increase. At the same time, the number of components such as filters is proportional to the number of antennas, and the increase in the number of components will further increase the PCB area of AAU.
The 5G frequency band is high, and AAU's demand for high frequency board materials is increasing. The 3G/4G network is deployed below the 3GHz band. The mainstream 5G network bands in the world are selected in the 3GHz, 4.8GHz, and 6GHz frequency bands, such as 28GHz, 30GHz, and 77GHz. As the front-end receiving device of the base station, the antenna and the radio frequency have extremely low requirements on the transmission loss of the medium, and the thermal conductivity is extremely high. The loss and thermal conductivity requirements of the high-frequency board for the antenna and the radio frequency are higher than those of other structures of the main device. The higher the frequency band, the higher the standard requirements for the transmission rate and dielectric loss, and the higher frequency plates are required. The materials in the frequency band above 6 GHz also need to adapt to the special substrate of the millimeter wave band. The amount of high-frequency PCB board required for different frequency bands is different, and the unit value is about 1.5-2 times higher than that of 4G application FR-4 board.
According to the forecast data of CCID Consulting, the number of 5G macro base stations is expected to reach 4.75 million in 2026, which is about 1.45 times that of 3.28 million 4G base stations at the end of 2017, and the number of supporting small base stations is about twice that of macro base stations. There are about 9.5 million, and the total number of base stations is about 14.25 million. PCB is an indispensable electronic material in the construction of base stations. Such a large amount of base stations will generate huge PCB incremental space.
According to the overall plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China's 5G network was started in the second half of 2019 and officially put into commercial use in 2020. At present, the world has entered the development stage of 5G, and the market demand for high-speed, high-frequency, high-density, high-capacity PCB as the core component has grown rapidly. The core customers in the communication field have clearly proposed that the company's PCB products can be synchronized with downstream technologies or even Advance development and rapid entry into the industrialization stage. As a strategic partner of the world's leading communications equipment giants, Shennan Circuit is not only actively developing 5G base stations. With the completion of the “General-purpose high-speed high-density multi-layer printed circuit board” fundraising project at the end of 2018, we have reason to believe that The PCB industry will soon shine in the global 5G network peak.
The above data comes from the “China's Printed Circuit Board (PCB) Manufacturing Industry Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report” issued by the Prospective Industry Research Institute. The forward-looking industrial research institute also provides industrial big data, industrial planning, industrial declaration, and industrial parks. Solutions, industry investment and other solutions.