PCB Internal Migration Sequel
The global PCB industry has experienced the process of transferring production capacity from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries and regions to mainland China. The transfer trajectory of the PCB industry has finally become centralized, and China has gradually become the world's largest PCB manufacturing base. The data shows that in 2018, China's PCB industry output value reached 32.702 billion US dollars, an increase of 10.0%. It is estimated that China's PCB industry output value will reach 35.6 billion US dollars in 2020, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year, and its proportion of the global PCB industry's total output value has been 8.1% in 2000 rose to 52.4% in 2018.
Especially in 2019, based on the opening of new capacity, China's PCB production value will accelerate the expansion of the global market share. However, in the rapid development of China's PCB industry in recent years, due to the increasing production costs and environmental protection pressures of the PCB industry, the investment promotion policy given by the local government undertaking the PCB industry has certain appeal and accelerated the production capacity. The Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta region have migrated to central and western cities with relatively good basic conditions, such as Hubei Huangshi, Jiangxi Jiujiang, Anhui Guangde, Sichuan Suining and other places.
The internal migration layout is laid, and the production capacity is gradually released.
As early as 2016, due to the outbreak of demand in the lithium battery industry, the production capacity of many copper foils was swallowed, resulting in the shortage of electronic copper foil and the rapid increase in prices. At the same time, copper foil is also the core raw material of copper clad laminates in PCB. Under the pressure of rising raw materials prices, PCB price increases are inevitable.
According to the data, in 2016, the price of copper foil rose by 50%-60%, the price of copper clad laminates increased by 40%-50%, and the price of PCB increased by 5%-15%.
From copper foil to PCB, although the price pressure on the PCB factory has been diluted. However, for many small and medium-sized PCB manufacturers in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, their pressure bearing capacity is limited. In addition, the benefits of investment promotion from the governments of Hubei, Hubei, Hunan and other places are very attractive at this time. China's PCB industry is welcoming industrial transfer.
According to industry sources, in 2016, PCB factories in Guangdong mainly transferred to Jiangxi Yinzhou, Jiujiang, Jishui, Hubei Huangshi, Hunan Yiyang and other places.
By 2017, large-scale restrictions will spread from Kunshan, Jiangsu to Zhuhai, Shanghai and Shenzhen. In addition, at the beginning of 2018, the “Green Tax” was officially implemented, and its sewage and exhaust gas increased by 3-5 times. The operating costs of PCB manufacturers rose sharply.
In this context, in order to reduce the impact of PCB rectification on the industrial chain, a gradual rectification and rectification route from East China to South China has been formed.
At that time, the overall price increase of PCB manufacturers was as high as 20%, and industrial transfer was imminent.
Today, after three years, the mainland PCB factory has presented a hundred flowers. According to the above-mentioned insiders, as the frontier of the gradient transfer of the PCB industry in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta, there are nearly 100 PCB board factories in Jiangxi Province from 2016 to 2019, ranging from HDI to through-hole.
Among them, Jiangxi Longnan area focuses on the development of high-end and high-value links in the electronic information industry, forming new electronic materials and electronic components, to copper clad laminates, multi-layer high-density circuit boards, SMT, precision components, OLEDs, and smart terminal products. The complete electronic information industry chain.
According to industry sources, in the wave of the internal migration of the PCB industry, it takes about one and a half to two years for the construction of the investment and construction plant from infrastructure to the whole process. As of this year, most of the in-migration PCB factories have completed the first phase of production, and only 50% of PCB manufacturers in Jiangxi have entered the stage of production.
It is worth noting that even if there are more PCB factories in operation, they are basically at a loss in the first three years, and some SMEs that rely on government subsidies may face reshuffle.
According to industry insiders, "At present, among the PCB manufacturers that have moved from Shenzhen to the mainland, except Foxconn, others are losing money."
However, it should not be overlooked that even though a considerable number of intrinsic PCB manufacturers have been put into production, they have not been profitable. In addition, the policy of limiting emissions and environmental protection is becoming more and more strict, and the PCB industry is entering the stage of shuffling and mergers and acquisitions.
Profitability under pressure, entering the shuffling period
The industry knows that the circuit board industry transfer is a long-term, in-depth process. In the current circuit board industry environment, the automation level of equipment and equipment investment is the focus.
The above-mentioned industry insiders said that the PCB factory is a heavy equipment investment enterprise. Most of the PCB manufacturers that have moved in, because of their limited strength, the investment scale is about 1 billion yuan. The infrastructure is divided into 2-3 phases, and the first phase is basically 3 With an input standard of 600 million yuan, the first batch of production will be realized.
However, the high investment in the previous period has already cost a lot of money. Even if the enterprises that completed the first phase of mass production are still in a state of loss.
At the same time, as the price of PCB continues to decline, the higher the investment of PCB manufacturers, the more losses, such as the high-end HDI circuit board, the basic cost of infrastructure is 300-600 million yuan, but the input-output ratio is only 50. %-60%.
"Even if the input and output of high-level circuit board manufacturers can achieve 1:1, under the influence of depreciation of machinery and equipment, and staff costs, the PCB factory is basically a loss in the early stage."
In addition, in recent years, domestic environmental protection supervision has become more stringent, especially for PCBs, such as high energy consumption and high emission industries, the rectification efforts are relatively large, and the situation of PCB manufacturers is relatively difficult.
"At present, many circuit board factories, you feel that it is alive, in fact, already dead." Industry insiders told the micro-network.
Like the development process of mobile phone manufacturers, they have experienced prosperous and peaking, and then they have been shuffled and become more and more centralized. The fate of the PCB factory that is at a loss, the low-end manufacturers without quality requirements will eventually be eliminated, and the manufacturers of medium and high-end products will wait for the acquisition of listed companies.
It is worth noting that from the second half of 2018 to the middle of this year, there have been relatively many M&A incidents in the PCB industry. Among them, this year's flexible circuit board FPC factory will be acquired by listed companies.
In particular, the escalation of trade friction has forced the accelerated replacement of high-end products FPC, IC carrier boards, and high-frequency boards. In addition, the development of 5G commercials has put forward higher requirements for PCB manufacturers. Traditional hard-board manufacturers are facing transformation and entering hard. The development phase of board to soft and hard combination has also accelerated the pace of PCB manufacturers' shuffling.